August 27, 2016

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Updates
Cook Political  Updates

New site and newsletter coming Friday

August 16, 2012
In an effort to streamline our release of material, we will be publishing our updated newsletter Friday, August 17th, as opposed to our usual Thursday release, so as to coincide with the launch of our new Cook Political website. We apologize for any inconvenience, and appreciate your understanding as we conduct this transition.
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Cook Political House Updates

OH-14: LaTourette Retirement Not a Game-Changer

August 2, 2012
House Editor David Wasserman writes: Under normal circumstances, GOP Rep. Steve LaTourette's decision would cause Democrats to start salivating. After all, his marginal seat in suburban Cleveland (it nearly tied at the presidential level in 2008) is exactly the kind of seat Democrats would need to claw their way back to 218 and the majority. However, the timing of LaTourette's announcement - almost five months after Ohio's primary - almost certainly means this seat will stay in GOP hands. As a result, we're keeping Ohio's 14th CD in the Solid Republican column.
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Cook Political House Updates

MA-06: Tierney Troubles Create Rare GOP Opportunity

August 2, 2012
House Editor David Wasserman writes: It's old news that Democratic Rep. John Tierney's wife took a plea deal for filing false tax returns to cover up her brother's illegal offshore gambling operation. Even after the news broke in 2010, Tierney won reelection with 57 percent in the worst possible political environment for his party. But that year, he was running against a Republican who had put up a yard sign comparing President Obama to Osama bin Laden and Tierney outspent him $1.9 million to $793,000. This year, matters are much different with GOP state Sen. Richard Tisei in the race.
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Cook Political House Updates

July House FEC Roundup

July 26, 2012
House Editor David Wasserman writes: With most primaries in the books, it's getting to be that point when dollars spent and cash on hand remaining start becoming more important than dollars raised. And with little more than three months to go before Election Day, the financial contours of the fight for the House are coming into clearer focus. Democrats have impressively held their own at the committee and candidate fundraising levels, and more Democratic challengers have out-banked GOP incumbents than vice versa as of the end of June. But the differential is not nearly lopsided enough to indicate a wave, and pro-GOP Super PACs and outside groups seem well-positioned to make up the difference and then some.
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Cook Political Senate Updates

NV Senate: Berkley’s Ethics Cloud

July 26, 2012
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy writes: Denying Republican Sen. Dean Heller a full term in his own right is a big priority for Senate Democrats this cycle. The race is currently one of only three Republican-held seats in the Toss Up column, and which candidate wins this race could well determine which party holds the majority next year. To date, all polls indicate a very close race. Democratic U.S. Rep. Shelley Berkley is her party’s standard bearer. She is an aggressive candidate and a tireless campaigner, but recent events may well have made this a more challenging race than either she or Democrats had hoped just a month ago.
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Scatterplot

Democratic-held Districts by 2010 Dem House Vote
and Cook Partisan Voting Index

Horizontal axis is vote for Winning Democrat in Each District,
Vertical axis is the Cook Partisan Voting Index Number for that District.

Republican-held Districts by 2010 GOP House Vote
and Cook Partisan Voting Index

Horizontal axis is vote for Winning Republican in Each District,
Vertical axis is the Cook Partisan Voting Index Number for that District.